Commodity Futures Ban In India Should End November 30

In a misguided decision to suspend futures trading on rubber, chana, soyoil and potatoes, the Indian government has hurt two of the three major commodity exchanges in the country.

With there being no proof that traders had anything to do with increased food prices, chairman of the Forwards Markets Commission, B.C. Khatua, says he believes the suspension will be lifted on November 30.

India will have to make a decision to allow unimpeded trading if they want to be a serious global player in commodities.

The suspension of trading reveals they don't have an understanding on how markets work. Foreign investors won't consider them reliable if they step in when prices go beyond their desired range.

How is India Faring Among the BRIC Countries?

For now at least, it looks like India will outperform other BRIC countries, primarily because it relies less on imports than the rest, although Brazil is strong in that sense too.

Russia has of course been pummeled by the worldwide economic conditions, as its markets have lost 65 percent of their equity since July. China and Brazil or close, with China losing 40 percent and Brazil 38 percent of market value. Brazil has been hit hard because of their reliance on commodities.

India on the other hand, has only dropped by 27 percent since July, a testament to their focus on domestic consumption rather than exports.

"India imports about 85% of its oil requirements and hence, the drop in prices augurs well for the trade and current account deficits. On the other hand, we are one of the few economies driven by domestic consumption and investment , unlike other regional economies which are dependent on exports. This makes us relatively insulated to global slowdown," Sukumar Rajah, chief investment officer (Equity) of Franklin Templeton Investments India said.

Another key factor in retaining a fairly strong position in a difficult climate has been the fall in commodity and energy prices, which has eased inflation in the country. Earnings have also been stronger the expected, so a more positive attitude has been maintained in spite of the challenges.

India is hoping investors and financial institutions will take note of this, and they will have an interest in continuing to invest in the country.

The downside of course is when demand from emerging markets surges again, and prices of commodities go up, making the more insular business climate of India not as robust as its competitors. But for now, as far as BRIC countries and a number of their Asian neighbors, India has a much stronger economic position to work with.