Monday, December 22, 2008

Ernst & Young's Says BRIC Economies will Account for 40 Percent of Global Growth from 2009 - 2020

Brazil, Russia, India and China (Bric) will account for 40 percent of worldwide growth from 2009 - 2020, in spite of the difficult economic situation they face, said Ernst & Young's Item Club.

Adrian Cooper, a senior economic advisor to Item Club said, "Whilst it is not inevitable that the global growth dynamics of the past decade will continue indefinitely, the strong domestic momentum in the large emerging economies, the productivity gains from their continued integration into the global economy and benefits from improved macro and micro economic policies will mean that the next decade sees an impressive rate of expansion."

Production categories that will be especially strong in growth the countries will be chemicals, which will account for 38 percent of world production; vehicles, accounting for 30 percent of production; and electronics coming in at 28 percent of global production. China will account for the most growth in those sectors.

Another big factor will be the growth of global cash reserves, which at this time stands at 77 percent being held by the four countries, amounting to $7 trillion.

Sovereign wealth funds alone are projected to grow to $15 trillion by 2013, and that takes into account oil prices of $60 a barrel.

Base metals are also going to be a huge growth area for the BRICs, with predictions coming in at about 65 percent of global production by 2020.

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